Update: NAFA Fresh Quantities May Sale

[robertw]

TC39,
Just as Stephen49er explained to you, a majority of the fur pulled out of cold storage (properly stored below zero) by trappers and dealers can not be picked out from the fresh stuff.

I know of individual trappers here in Missouri that are currently storing this years coon catch because they were concerned about the glut of coon coming out of storage and hitting this May auction. (Time will tell if they are right).

There are also a number of us that ship fur to NAFA and have NAFA store it for us until we release it for sale when the markets reaches an acceptable level. I have done this with beaver in years past just as Stephen49er has done. When the otter market crashed a few years ago thousands of otter went into storage, same deal, we (trappers and fur buyers) waited until the market reached an accetable level before releasing them for sale.

With the price of the central type (southern) bobcats alot of buyers have been stockpiling them waiting on a better market, same with southern beaver.

You can not tell properly stored fur from fresh fur, there is not the yellowing of the leather and fat like commonly found in stored fur when stored in a cooler versus below zero cold storage.

Sorry all of these furbuyers and trappers kept this "hidden" from you!!

[robertw]

I would bet that NAFA has quantites of fur in cold storage now belonging to trappers and dealers that has not been released for sale yet.

Personally, I'm still second guessing myself wondering if I shouldn't have put a hold on this last batch of coons as I believe the market has alot of upside potential for this next season.

[TRAPPERBILL]

I have shipped to NAFA for years and never heard of putting a hold on it. How do you do this?

[thebeav2]

Then I think you would be wrong RW. There Is going to be a huge carry over Into next year.

When shipping to NAFa you can tell them to hold your fur until you want to sell. Or you can specify what sale you want your fur to be sold on.

[trappnman]

you know TC, I ignored your last jibe- but get real

have said such though many disagree and state the coon harvest was not substanialy higher

I said that early on, based on the coon harvest HERE

I also said, on the same thread, that others had convinced me it WAS a huge harvest-

did you catch me at something?

[trappincoyotes39]

No tman your not the pnly one to make that statement.

Robert I don't care who stores what and for how long but should not be labeled as fresh, hidden oh well it will be the ones selling who get bit in the end. That is called markest manipulation in my mind plain and simple, gives the market a false sense of security showing things as fresh collections 90% sold and so on. I can gurantee things like this take place in a stock market or with other commodities people would be looking into it.

To me fresh goods are goods of that years harvest, would be like calling 3 year stored corn fresh corn, or frozen beef fresh slightly aged, but holdover in a cooler has a result on the market and also the harvest to a degree, if people see 100% sold then they give them a false sense that fur is moving along great and makes it seem demand is high at a decent price, but we don't need to tell them about the 700,000 fresh goods sitting in the cooler that has went unsold as of yet.

It should be let known what is on hold and how much so producers can make better informed decisions you wouldn't get by with that in the trading of other commodities, well besides crude oil LOL.

I know Robert your market savy is much more than most so continue on with informing us as to the best way to market our fur for max profit, kinda like getting gambeling advice from a probblem gambler in a way LOL.

I agree with 100% with Beav the hold over will be very high!

[robertw]

TC39,
So basically your against free enterprise.

Educating you is no easy task......You do realize that when the market isn't real strong that alot of the fur going through these auctions is purchased by speculators that are buying because they see the potential to make money on it when the demand increases?

For fresh fur, the rule basically is that when it is submitted for sale it is fresh.....carry oover is not fresh. Fur purchased and later offered for sale again is fresh as it is not carry over.

As for any potential hold over.....maybe and maybe not, the market has digested 400,000+ coon a couple of times and demand seems to be increasing. If they can move 75% or 450,000 of the coons then I have no doubt that the remainder could be moved private treaty over the summer months and early fall.

Alot people also don't realise that NAFA has consolidated what use to be 4 auctions annually into the two auctions we now have. (The January internet sale is not an auction and is only small samples of select goods IMHO)

[TrapperRon]

Fresh goods are goods that are received from trappers and dealers that are offered for the first time. Until grading is complete there is no way of telling what quantities were held in freezers from last year or three years ago. Some will have a fresher appearance than others, depending upon how they were stored.

The projected advertizement of quantities is to inform the International Industry buyers and brokers.

Projection of quantities if from constant contact with the receiving depots, pick up routes, goods already in the system, and known shipments that are on their way. Sometimes there are more, sometimes less, but surprising how close it is with hose numbers.

[trappincoyotes39]

No robert you missed my point free enterprise is fine, but I don't call setting on any commidity for a length of time and calling it "fresh" being a part of free enterprise. That kind of marketing is helping some and hurting others when they dump large numbers at one time.

Robert what is the annual cost to keep say 500 coons on "ICE"?

You would have no problems buying frozen beef that has been setting for a period of time then thawed out for sale as being labled fresh then would you?

You don't think having 250 tons of beef setting in coolers and not being aware of such as something that can effect the market? I can assure you buyers and sellers are aware of captive beef supplies in the US.

If you think the market will keep absorbing all these coons at a decent rate so be it, time will tell how it plays out. The oil is starting to fall and the economy still isn't great across the world, as quick as we have had an upturn things can go back just as fast, we can over produce very quickly, fur is a commodity but nothing like protiens or grains.

Not unlike wheat from a few years back went sky high, followed by much higher input cost because of the high prices wheat fell off and many lost piles after the fact but made good money for a short window, the key was durring the few good years did you make enough to offset the really bad years?

[robertw]

TC,
Cold storage isn't all that costly versus the return.

The more expensive way ; You can run the 20 to 25 cubic foot freezers year round for $15 to $25 a month. You can easily put 5-600 coon baled in a chest type freezer. (figures .25 to .50 cents a year storage)

Walk in freezers depending on the volume in storage can easily reduce costs per pelt to 5 to 10 cents per pelt.

[TrapperRon]

Apr 27, 2012 20:20:24 GMT -6 trappincoyotes39 said:

No robert you missed my point free enterprise is fine, but I don't call setting on any commidity for a length of time and calling it "fresh" being a part of free enterprise. That kind of marketing is helping some and hurting others when they dump large numbers at one time.

Not sure who you are referring to as sitting on the goods. If NAFA then you are wrong. The "fresh" goods as explained above are at the sale for the first time. Unsold or buybacks from the previous sales are not include in those "fresh" totals.

[thorsmightyhammer]

ot unlike wheat from a few years back went sky high, followed by much higher input cost because of the high prices wheat fell off and many lost piles after the fact but made good money for a short window, the key was durring the few good years did you make enough to offset the really bad years?

Randy, I live in wheat country and the price have been are still above input costs.


Beef, isnt fur and it isnt corn. It has a shelf life.

Randy, I live in podunk MN and I knew there were a lot of beaver in cold storage. Know of a couple smaller buyers who hadnt sold for a couple years. Seriously, if you think I know the fur is out there dont you suppose the end buyers do too?

I'd be surprised of the coon on the sale are many that have been held over the years by speculators. Coon market aint been bad, at least for good coon.

I think the market can absorb the coon but at what levels remains to be seen.

I dont think that NAFA for FHA should "hold the line" like some FHA cronies pruport they are going to do.

Worst thing for the coon market will be to have half million going into next year.

[thebeav2]

Sorry Ron but I don't buy that.

The Bottom line Is this they are offering over 600,000 coon on the May sale they are not FRESH goods. You or they can break It down any way you see fit but there Is still a total of 600,000 COON hitting the market. And that Is not a good thing.

[thorsmightyhammer]

The market absorbed way more fur back in the boom.

There are more people in the world these days and China is and has always been an unknown with the billion plus people entering the world market.

BTW randy it doesnt cost much to keep a freezer or three in NW MN running full bore. Not much at all. Heck they hardly run 6 months out of the year. It costs me more to dry the kids jeans.

I double and almost tripled what I could have got for beaver last year and I'll never sell a rat again for under 6 bucks. Ever.

[trappincoyotes39]

A chest freezer isn't going to keep my coons fresh for an extended length of time without showing it and when graded costing me a little to correct? Or am I to assume baled and frozen coons will comand the same grade as fresh?

Undressed fur has no shelf life? No loss of quaility with time?

Steven alot of wheat in western SD for sure and wheat is like fur much down grading takes place for protien content what is told on the radio for the most part isn't seen in the end check at the elevator. Back in 08 wheat was at record highs with that round up, diesel, fertilizer and land prices at least out are way rose alot I mean alot you had 20.00 bushelk wheat and a major raise in production cost and then wheat went down alot, we have 1 wheat guy that did 70,000 acres I can assure you he made alot for a short period of time and lost a lot in the cycle that followed, think about 1 guy farming 70,000 acres and even a 10% rise in input cost and hiring help and all the rest far different than someone with a section of wheat and the same input cost increase.

I still think "FRESH" should mean just that fresh, but I guess I'm in the minority on this one. Again if all these coon are from this harvest year so be it, that is the purest form of supply and demand but if not I think there is some deception in this phrase and marketing.

[trappnman]

I agree with beav and TC- fresh should mean this years goods.

but the auction determines "fresh" as "new to them"

I can't imagine anyone holding "good" coon very long. simply because of what the coon market is and has been over past few years. So if a disproportionate number of the coon now at auction are goods from the last 2-5 years as some say- I would have to wonder WHY they were held in storage that long.......

and what the release of these furs, will do to the overall market. With the flood of this seasons goods (fresh to you and me Randy), is the market ready for that influx?

[martybaxter]

Those coon could very well be fresh goods and a reflection of how ridiculous the harvest was this year.


I can see beavers coming out of the freezers when the market ticks high enough to get some return on them, but the coon market hasn't done anything.

when you're in the country buying coons and you see the Nafa buyers leaving $4 - $5 - $6 on the table with every coon they buy, you have wonder what Nafa is telling them.

We don't know how many took the advances to keep operating. There could be 200K fresh desperation coon up there, looking to get out from underneath interest payments.


When the coon prices tick over into profitable territory then you'll see coon coming out of the woodwork like the beavers are now.

[trappnman]

Ron-

My own opinion, is we will never (yes never is a long time....) see the demand for coon we once did.

I think what we have seen in the last few years, is probably going to be the norm for the foreseeable future.

Big coon, good furred coon, good colored coon are going to sell at profitable prices. Anyone in the northern tier or elsewhere with a good coon, the prices paid the last few years for averages, is well within the profitability range.

and at those levels (upper teens to 20s) with many having the option of selling green at pretty much auction prices, the harvest will always be high and as such, offers buyers for all practical purposes, unlimited access to these better coon, at very reasonable prices to them- they only need so many coon- esp with more use of coyotes and beaver.

but with so many offered, that mid tier and bottom tier coon price, is going to be either very cheap, or non existent.

if the demand goes up, that niche will be filled by more top tier coon- In today's fur use market, I can't see how coon will ever catch up to where the demand is more than the resource.

I do however see Steven's point, that on something like rats, if you believe history repeats itself, when rats go back down (and they will) that if one has the room, they could easily go 4-6xs the value as they have down over past 5 years or so.

But I would like to know- how do you keep them from the stale look? I've tried about everything, freezing on carcasses, freezing skun fur, freezing put up fur- and in 6-8 months when put up or sold- doesn't matter they ALL have that stale look.

and that's with vacuum sealing the fur.

now sometimes it doesn't matter- price is unaffected- but I have had (esp mink) grade a "stale" with a price drop.

At auctions, do goods that have that stale look, esp with huge fresh goods offered, not get any deductions?

[thorsmightyhammer]

Mink are tough to keep over and look even remotely decent.

Rats get the "look" but doesnt seem to effect value.

Beaver cant hardly tell from new crop to a degree to be sure about and has never effected my value.

A big furbuyer out fo kansas told me in toronto that you can store fur for years and it wont effect value much or at all. The trick is sub zero storage.

This is the first year in many many years that I put my spring beaver up as I went. Usually I put em in the freezer and finish the next year.

As far as NAFA misrepresenting "fresh", its no secret what it is so its not a misrepresentation. If they were advertising as new crop it would be a different story.

I cant wait for the rat market to drop.

When it does I am going to set a new personal best that I will never be able to top again and I'll have all ready to go for the next cycle. I wonder how many rats a guy can stick into a fifteen foot cubic freezer if a guy bales them.

[robertw]

I tried explaining the sub zero storage temperature but many seemed to have missed it.

Stephen49er,
If they were baled up tight you should be able to do between 2500 to 3000.