muskrat Hype

[trappnman]

Where did it come from?

there were two trains of thought on rats over the past 8-9 months-

one was that they would have good value but nothing too different over last year, the other was the rats prices would explode at auctions.

I never saw the crazy prices some seemed to get, the local buyers here were cautious- the best I sold at was a $7.20 average early on-

but I know of some buyers via the internet that stated they were paying $9 nose count, and up- and some sellers with $12 rats.

FHA should have set the true market, but even that- an auction that was pretty much the equal of local when all was said and done- was pooh poohed by the "explode" folks, stating that meant nothing, and that prices still were going to be $9.$10, $11 averages

I think NAFA confirmed FHA- that the average rat, was in that $6-7 range.

so, without getting into a pissing match because thats not this thread's intent-

WHAT drove the hype on rats?

what indicators were there, after last years auctions, and the word on the street via the local buyers of " similar to last year, no big explosions in demand or price" that cause that info to be discounted, and that the truth of the matter was local buyers were underrating rats, and the auctions would be the proof of that?

I read once last winter if you sell for under $8 nose count, you are a fool. Implying that there could be no doubt the market would continue to spiral upward.

What fueled that belief?

What indicators countered the facts of what locals were paying, what past auctions brought, history of rat prices, etc?

[packerfan]

Great post T-Man.........I believe it started as SPECULATION. Then some folks(auction groupies) starting believing their OWN hype. It snowballed from there. Money in hand, always makes me feel better. But I always put a few into auction for the RUSH! It's a gamble, like any other market.

[blackhammer]

I sold some rats for 8 in the carcus in Nov.And I believe the buyer made money on them.Early orders got filled and the Chinese backed off a little.I think the market is pretty good right now.Human nature and the internet fueled higher than realistic expectations.I don't think it was the auction houses or country buyers.Looks like te Chinese decided it was foolish to buy smaller skins for anything but low prices.That seems to be the biggest change in the rat market from last year to me.
There was one more train of thought by many also.The market would crash and it seems to be holding alright.

[blackhammer]

Could be there were a lot more rats to buy?.Don't know the numbers though.But the too much information age probably led to the speculation.When I saw the ranch mink sale last week hit all time records I thought the rats would follow.So that shows what I know.Optimistic speculation is fun but not very accurate.

[Woodswalker]

What hype?

On the poll more people voted rats would go between 4 and 5 than voted for over 8.

In general more people were thinking the rat market would "crash" like a few years ago rather than hold fairly steady.

Rat average for the past year or 14 months looks to be better than 7 at the auctions. Not bad.

[longrangekilla]

I shipped all my rats even after I watched my 10 and 7 year old sons sell 35 put up to a local buyer for 9.00 nose count. I always ship anyway, but after seeing that, I was positive I would see at least 10.00 average. When I had 150 on the Jan sale that were bought back, I started to realize that things were not set in stone. However, I did sell a few at 11.50 private treaty on the days immediately before the sale. I have had 9 plus dollar averages in recent years, so it did seem possible. The real bummer is I am picking up beautiful huge winter rats in a new pond all this week without a clue on what to do with them. Nobody locally will buy fur anymore this year if ever again and I don't want to store them all summer, so off to NAFA and anpther roll of the dice I guess.

[lotsofmink]

Well gee lets think for years the auction forcasts and the market reports from FFG and TPC have all said fur prices follow oil prices and that rat prices(along with mink and beaver) follow ranch mink prices.
But heh in a year of record oil prices and record ranch mink prices guess what? for the most part wild fur still is not worth much. Yet there is lots of guys thinking that 4-6$ rats 10-12$ coon 10-20$ beaver is perfectly fine and acceptable.
They are not making any money but the guys buying fur at give away prices sure will

[bblwi]

You ask where the hype came from? I don't really know but with what the buyers were paying in the upper Midwest last Nov-December indicated that they were very optimistic. If they are not buying now that means they guessed wrong and we will see that carried out next fall as well.
Next year could be the year to hold them as many will be real gun shy until there is a sale that indicates value and for most of our region and buyers if that is not until February the harvest is basically over and many good already sold or shipped.
Bryce

[calvin]

I think guys got optimistic over last years prices. Coupled by what some were paid for a short period of time (carcass rats close to $9) early on. People naturally thought it would go up from there. I admit I got overly optimistic as well...but wasn't surprised when they went down. And was glad they didn't go down far.

It is what it is as far as I/m concerned. In about a month I/ll go after them hard again. Even though they may be less value AND I might be paying $8 a gallon for diesel. I/ll be smiling anyhow. Less price always means more elbow room. Always pro's and con's.

[Rally Hess]

The hype is our perception, or our expectations. Some times you gamble and lose. My take is there are cheerleaders, for all the outlets, on all the trapper sites. Read enough posts and it doesn't take too long to figure out who they are. With the current internet and electronics, nothing is a secret unless you don't participate. If Johnny catches a coon and runs to the local fur buyer you know what he got for it in about an hour.
As it is alot of the local buyers are selling direct or selling to a larger buyer, who has outlets. With current communication being what it is the buyer can even take a picture of a lot of say coon and send it to a perspective buyer in Castoria and he can get a pretty good idea the quality of what he is buying. If the loacl buyer wants to keep him as a direct buyer he ships what he took the picture of. Chinese are long on loyalty. It is cheaper for the manufacturer to buy this way and doesn't have to go to a sale and pay the auction company sellers fees or pay for travel/days lost at work. The sale can be made at any time, and in lot sizes they both agree on. The loacl buyer can charge a little more and can pay according to the contracts he has. When the contracts are filled he drops his prices on the next buying trip.
The last two years I've received less for rats and beaver at auction, than I could have sold off the floor in my shop, and not had to skin them. It seems the auctions are playing catchup the last couple years on the bread and butter furs, and the sales are less frequent. It appears the auctions are becoming less pertinent as far as price guages for the country sales and are putting more effort into the sales of ranched mink than wild fur. Probably a good business decision on their part as it is cheaper by far to gather and market a sure bet than a wild card like wild fur, with fewer swings in markets.
Should be interesting to see how it shakes out in the next five years or so.

[mustelameister]

Feb 24, 2011 14:27:35 GMT -6 trappnman said:

Where did it come from?


WHAT drove the hype on rats?

C'mon . . . we all know where this started!

When the Beav started buying 'rats, that was a sure sign that prices were destined to skyrocket!

[bblwi]

There was a noticeable increase in the number of new buyers this year and that creates competition as well. Not everyone buying fur is going to make a profit, just as not everyone selling fur is going to cover their costs as well.

Bryce

[northof50]

At the end of the year it will be interesting to see what all the states and provinces fur take record produce and how many rats were actually harvested.
That will show how may are being side tracked and shipped direct and not going through the auctions.

[minkman99]

Those record ranch mink prices looked as if they were gonna drive up rats more. But of course they didn't. A person has to wonder if some country buyers got caught on the losing end of the rat market.

[Zagman]

One sits and reads all these fur selling posts over all these years......you almost get cynical.

All the opinions floating around, speculation, etc. No one knows exactly what is or will happen.....only guessing.

Then, the sale hits. The results come in. And everyone suddenly has all of this clarity.

Some bust other trappers, saying "You shoulda had every piece of fur you own at that sale!" Others say "I told you should have sold locally!"

They never said that BEFORE the sale with such strength and confidence.

The more of this you watch, over years and years, and you really start to accept that, as sellers, we really are the last to know what our fur will bring. And we dont know until THAT sale.

There was a lot of hype this year on rats and it did not play out.

A few years ago, a lot of hype on coon. Remember when trapping supply dealers could not keep a trap or Griz in stock? That coon market did not play out to those perceived levels.

Cats, I will admit, are living up to their hype.

My point? I dont know.....as I think back about all of these auctioins, it seems to me that more are let downs than pleasant surprises.

I guess, as trappers, we are always optimistic, and perhaps that snowballs into "hype".

In the end, sell your fur where you want to......you will probably be as right as anyone.

Zagman

[claythomas]

Consider the opposite scenario. Greys this year, from what I read over and over...."NO market, any movement on these will be complete speculation, and ther'll be darn little of that.

$5 was being kicked around.

I left some go.

At the Bedford fur sale greys brought $2 more than reds and a fed bucks less than yotes on average.

I have left my last sellable furbearer go based on what i've read.

[seldom]

Feb 25, 2011 6:44:28 GMT -6 claythomas said:

Consider the opposite scenario. Greys this year, from what I read over and over...."NO market, any movement on these will be complete speculation, and ther'll be darn little of that.

$5 was being kicked around.

Great example Clay!

[thorsmightyhammer]

Where did the "hype" come from?

Well alot of hundred dollar mink and a devalued dollar should have added to it.

When rat prices went up at the country levels in early december it was groenwald who pushed them there.

We'll see what happens yet.

Could be a replay of the 05/06 selling season when rats averaged 3 bucks more in may than they did in february.

Its too bad that we cant get an accurate count on the overall harvest but I am still going ot stick my nose out and say its either static from last year or down.

[wheelie]

Hype??? 4488 nuff said

All season (before and during) FHA has told their buyers that they didn't see a raging rat market and to buy with caution and ship early.

this hurt FHA (by telling the truth) as some of the buyers that ship FHA were seeing other buyers around them paying $8 nose count, etc. so they thought FHA was not in the loop on the rat market and some shipped to the other house that had "held" the line in Jan. internet sale and how the other house was saying FHA made a BIG mistake. This is where the continued hype came from.
Look at both avgs. from the houses on rats....who sold at the right time?

FHA DID say SELL EARLY ON RATS from day one and I think they got that right with zero hype.

[thorsmightyhammer]

Look at both avgs. from the houses on rats....who sold at the right time?

If you guys would have sold the remaining 34 percent what do you think the average would have been.

I dont have a clue what was held back so I can make an estimation.

Prices are still higher in the country than what both houses sold for.