Post by FWS on Jul 18, 2014 18:32:22 GMT -6
Putin is facing his moment of truth
Tragedy of MH17 shows he is losing control in Ukraine
The Financial Times
Editorial
July 18, 2014
In recent years Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has been an unconstructive actor on the world stage, notorious for his protection of the murderous Assad regime in Syria and for the annexation of Crimea. But how he acts following the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine will probably do more than anything else to seal his international reputation.
It may be that this terrible tragedy, in which 298 innocent people died, will convince the Kremlin leader to shut down the bloody insurgency in eastern Ukraine that he has fuelled by covertly supplying arms to the pro-Russian rebels fighting the Kiev government. Alternatively, he may try to prevent the truth over Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 emerging and stick to his policy of dismembering Ukraine to stop it shifting to the west. If he chooses the latter course, Russia will become an international pariah and a dark new era in east-west relations will begin.
Following the destruction of MH17, there has been much dispute as to who was responsible. The circumstantial evidence indicates that the aircraft was shot down by pro-Russian separatists. There is a question mark over how the rebels came to be in possession of such a potent surface-to-air missile system. They may have stolen it from the Ukrainian military or – far more gravely – obtained it directly from Russia. But it seems inconceivable that the Boeing 777 was fired on by Ukraine’s armed forces, given the absence of any military aircraft on the rebel side.
A full and independent investigation into the aircraft’s destruction is needed. The separatists, who control the territory where the aircraft crashed, must give investigators unrestricted access to the site and to the black box recorders. This may require Mr Putin to put unequivocal public pressure on the pro-Russian militants to comply. Should he fail, the Kremlin leader risks losing what remains of his international credibility.
Mr Putin’s responsibilities go far beyond this. Although the Kremlin has accepted the emergence of Petro Poroshenko as Ukraine’s elected president, it has continued to feed the conflict by supplying the rebels with ever more tanks and heavy weaponry. Moscow must end this flow of materiel, force the separatists to stop fighting and dissolve the Donetsk People’s Republic.
If Mr Putin does not rise to the challenge, the west needs to be firm in its response. Before the MH17 disaster the US was correct to impose fresh sanctions. Should there be no change in Kremlin behaviour, President Barack Obama would be justified in pressing for tougher economic penalties, the only way to concentrate the Kremlin’s mind.
European leaders should also rethink their collective stance. The bloc has been disappointingly divided between those, like the central Europeans, who take a tough approach to Russia and those, like Italy and parts of the German government, that are reluctant because of the threat to economic ties. As a result the EU has passed far less stringent sanctions than the US. If the death of 298 people – among them at least 198 Europeans – on a flight out of Amsterdam does not make EU leaders think again, nothing will.
However, it is Mr Putin who ultimately holds the key to resolving this crisis. He needs to act while he still has the power to dictate events. At home, the Russian president has encouraged a pro-separatist frenzy across state media that risks becoming unstoppable. In eastern Ukraine he has unleashed heavily armed forces whose indiscriminate conduct he is now struggling to contain.
The tragedy of MH17 is a terrible sign of how the conflict in Ukraine is slipping catastrophically out of control. Mr Putin has precious little time to change course.
