Fear of Falling Demand Drives Crude Below $91

[FWS]

Fear of Falling Demand Drives Crude Below $91

By DAVID BIRD
Wall Street Journal
October 19, 2012

Crude-oil prices fell to an 11-day low amid concerns about world oil demand.

Analysts said broad global economic worries has raised doubts about the strength of world oil demand at a time when U.S. crude-oil inventories are at their highest level for this time of year since 1982, when government record keeping began. Prices of reformulated gasoline blendstock and heating oil continued to decline on signs of weak demand and expectations that U.S. refiners will soon be boosting output as seasonal maintenance work ends.

The supply-demand fundamentals tilted bearish as the dollar advanced on disappointment that the European Union's two-day summit ended Friday without major news to renew investor confidence in Europe's financial system. A stronger greenback makes dollar-based commodities like crude oil more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies.

"There's just a general lack of confidence," said Gene McGillian, broker and analyst at Tradition Energy. "We're following equities down. It seems crude is reattaching itself to the broader market."

Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.05, or 2.2%, to settle at $90.05 a barrel, its lowest level since Oct. 8.

Brent crude for December delivery fell $2.28, or 2%, to $110.14 a barrel on the ICE Futures U.S. Brent was pressured by expectations that the Buzzard oil field, the largest in the North Sea region, will be back in operation this weekend after prolonged maintenance work.

Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline inventories aren't far above four-year lows set in recent weeks, but signs of sluggish demand and rising supplies are pressuring prices. The American Petroleum Institute said Friday that U.S. oil demand in September fell 3.8% from a year earlier, to 18.2 million barrels a day, the second-lowest demand for the month since 1996. Gasoline demand fell 4% in September compared with the year-ago month, while demand for distillate fuel, diesel and heating oil, was 4% below the September 2011 level.

Distillate stocks are at 12-year lows nationwide, but in the Northeast, where heating oil use is concentrated, inventories are the lowest since government record keeping began in 1990. Traders said sluggish demand for diesel is having more impact on prices than is the hope for stronger winter heating demand.

November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 4.88 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.6963 a gallon, the lowest price since July 2. Prices have fallen 8.9% over the past seven sessions. Front-month gasoline hadn't fallen for seven straight days since the summer of 2011, as the August contract was replaced by September as the front-month contract. For the week, gasoline's 6.8% drop was its biggest since the week ended Sept. 23, 2011.

November heating oil fell 5.21 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $3.1345 a gallon, and has fallen 3.8% in the past six sessions.

[PamIsMe]

Gas prices here went from $3.79 last week to $3.39 Friday to $3.47 today. This is nuts ..

Pam

[FWS]

Wait till they finish the Keystone Pipeline and the oil the Midwestern refiners have had exclusive access to since it it's been locked in by an inability to ship elsewhere ceases to be locked in. And is thus subject to global market forces resulting in those refiners paying a much higher price per barrel.

Or maybe the producers will forego higher prices as an altruistic gesture cuz' they care ................................

Yeah right.

[James]

My parents watch WAY too much Fox News. They're absolutely convinced that Obama has now dropped gas prices to help himself get re-elected.

Not even a Wall Street Journal article is likely to change their minds.

Jim

[Woodswalker]

Whatever happened to Peak Oil ??

[FWS]

Whatever happened to Peak Oil ??

It's still looming globally, and looks to have already happened in the U.S., the peak was in 1970 at just under 10 million barrels per day, production has declined overall since then, it's currently under 6 million b/pd. With U.S. consumption being about 20 million b/pd.

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil- 1860-2011



There's still oil to be produced but it's not 'cheap' oil, being from sources that are expensive to produce and not in the volumes of the past.

[PamIsMe]

"They're absolutely convinced that Obama has now dropped gas prices to help himself get re-elected."

LOL Sounds like a good reason to vote FOR him to me. Maybe Romney will explain at what level he will keep the gas prices if he gets elected?

Sheesh,
Pam

[trappnman]

I think that was explained Pam in the last debate- another recession as per Romneys Economic "plans".....

[northof50]

sure hope Keystone does not go through..... trans Provincial huff and puff is brewing....we don't need Chinesse ownership of our resources...and the us pipeline is paused going through Kansas, was it not your present president that blocked it.

[PamIsMe]

www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/02/21/carney_obama_didnt_turn_down_the_keystone_pipeline.html

Carney said: "But the President didn't turn down the Keystone pipeline. There was a process in place, with long precedent, run out of the State Department because of the issue of the pipeline crossing an international boundary, that required an amount of time for proper for review after an alternate route was deemed necessary through Nebraska at the request of the Republican Governor of Nebraska and other stakeholders in Nebraska and the region that needed to play out, to be done appropriately. You can't review and approve a pipeline, the route for which doesn't even exist."

[PamIsMe]

TransCanada anticipates approval of the Presidential Permit application - which is required as the pipeline will cross the Canada/U.S. border - in the first quarter of 2013, after which construction will quickly begin.

[bblwi]

Yes that is what we sure should do increase our drilling for higher priced oil while world demand is declining?? That would have to be government sponsored or credited as most businesses won't invest to lose money unless the tax write offs are huge and if taxes get lowered the incentive to lose money is far less as when the rates fall the value of the deductions falls as well.
A family earning 70K and donating 7K to charities gets a 15% deduction. A family earning 140 K donating 7K gets a 25% deduction. I was the stewardship director at our 1200 member church and it was amazing to see that many modest income families donated considerably more total funds at far less tax incentives to give than did higher income families.

Bryce

[thorsmightyhammer]

Transcanada should have just built that pipeline all the way to the canadian border and stopped a half inch away. Then they wouldnt have needed the feds approval.

By the time they would have gotten that completed they'd have got it.

[trappnman]

I need to ask-

since many hold the opinion that Obama stopped the pipeline- where did you get that information?

what "facts" led you to that conclusion- and what was your source for those "facts"? becasue its fasle, and I'm wondering what media source, would keep this going?

because dear friends- the FACT is as Pam stated-

Carney said: "But the President didn't turn down the Keystone pipeline. There was a process in place, with long precedent, run out of the State Department because of the issue of the pipeline crossing an international boundary, that required an amount of time for proper for review after an alternate route was deemed necessary through Nebraska at the request of the Republican Governor of Nebraska and other stakeholders in Nebraska and the region that needed to play out, to be done appropriately. You can't review and approve a pipeline, the route for which doesn't even exist."