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Post by Steve Gappa on Nov 30, 2007 18:45:46 GMT -6
I've heard it said that you can deal with fur like this-
the comment being "all fur is not the same, so how can one price fit every fur"?
This shows to me, a lack of experience one way or another in this type of buying/selling.
Now- exotic species like cats might be a different story- I'm talking yotes, coon, rats, mink, etc.
Rats are the easiest for a true nose count. Rats are (from an area) almost identical- a few big ones, a few small ones, a few damaged ones. And you know the market and know the fur from the area, its pretty easy to know the average of any major collection of rats. Same for mink- big males, from an area, are almost identical- and your local buyer knows this, and knows the average- again, we are talking good collections-
I sold to a buyer years ago- old Charlie Miller from Winona if any old timers from the area are reading this- he used to have 20 grades for rats it seemed- all a Nichol apart. Silly.
Coon and yotes on the local market- are a little different. There, you do have differences- fur quality, color, size.
But even then- you still have a series of "averages".
Lets say green XXXX coon are worth, based on color, quality from $18- $26. So- for a good sized collection- it suits buyer and seller to call that grade $22 coon.
Lets say xx and xxx- are worth $12-$18- again, a fair average, is $15.
and your Xs and poor coon- are worth from $4 - $12- so a $8-9 dollar average.
So really, you have 3, sometimes four with a higher 3rd grade and a bottom n/v pile making up your overall average.
Same with yotes.
Comments?
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Post by lynxcat on Nov 30, 2007 19:41:36 GMT -6
SOOOOO... what's your opinion on the cats market..break down and grading...size vs color vs back vs belly lynx
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Post by trappnman on Nov 30, 2007 20:00:50 GMT -6
did you miss this part?
Now- exotic species like cats might be a different story
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Post by bblwi on Nov 30, 2007 20:10:38 GMT -6
Steve lets carry that example on your coons a bit further. Lets say 100 coons with 20% 4xl 60% 2 & 3 and 20 % xl or poor.
With 22, 15 and 8 as averages that is $15 on the hundred coons. Probably a fair average for let us say WI November coons. With about say 30-40% of the coon WI earlier coon they would struggle to get past $12-$13 even though they may sell at auction for similar to the November.
A friend and I are matching our NAFA grades, sizes and prices over the last 3 years. We have about 450-500 in the data now.
We are seeing the following roughly size at select, 1 or 1-11 grade is about 5-6 dollars per size grade. When you get to straight twos the grade price actually goes over the size price gap from our data. So the 3xxl and larger coons almost all are 1-11 or better unless we get a few late litter large sows. The early YOY many times are XL and xxL and 11s and they sell for 9-12 at auction and they are far below the 8-9 you quote. I am thinking that your good 3 and 4 xl coons hold up and that 17-26 price holds well, with the 2xl and lighter 3xls the price drops a bit below 15 to say 12-13 and the lower end stuff probably goes to 3-7 and thus one gets the 11-13 more commonly than the 15. I am sure markets for specific buyers are different and that reflects prices paid on the different size and grade of coon.
Several years ago I shipped about 16 coons to FHA for the Seattle Sale. These were all mid December and first week of January coons caught after our WTA fur sale. The going coon market for put up average fur at the time was about 11-12, with coon like this bringing maybe 15 tops. About 1996-97. I average $22 at Seattle. I am absolutely sure I would have not got anywhere near that average locally even put up. That is one thing I like about auctions with me being a 80-150 coon guy. The auction does not know or care if that is one of one or one of 1,000. With local buyers doing nose counts and establishing a business and or marketing strategy your numbers or lack of do figure in to your overall prices over time. That may be a perception on my part but to me it seems real when I review prices and pricing and know where and when the coons were harvested and by whom they were harvested.
Bryce
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Post by trappnman on Nov 30, 2007 20:18:22 GMT -6
bryce- Im not quite sure I understand what you are saying- let me recap-
We are seeing the following roughly size at select, 1 or 1-11 grade is about 5-6 dollars per size grade. When you get to straight twos the grade price actually goes over the size price gap from our data.
So the 3xxl and larger coons almost all are 1-11 or better unless we get a few late litter large sows. The early YOY many times are XL and xxL and 11s and they sell for 9-12 at auction and they are far below the 8-9 you quote.
I am thinking that your good 3 and 4 xl coons hold up and that 17-26 price holds well, with the 2xl and lighter 3xls the price drops a bit below 15 to say 12-13 and the lower end stuff probably goes to 3-7 and thus one gets the 11-13 more commonly than the 15. I am sure markets for specific buyers are different and that reflects prices paid on the different size and grade of coon.
over the past three years- your xxxx coons range in that $17-26 range, your 2xls, etc in the $12-13 range, and the poors in the #3-7?
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Post by bblwi on Nov 30, 2007 22:03:35 GMT -6
No I was referencing those average ranges I quoted there based on the example of 100 coons with a $15 average and then converting that to what we see in the grease averages and why
We do see about that $5-$7 range on size grade being equal for the upper grades.
Example 2xxl coon at select $24 2xxl coon at 1 22 2xxl coon 1-11 17 2xl coon 11 13
3xxl coon select 29 3xxl coon at 1 27 3xxl coon at 1-11 21 3xxl coon 11 16
xl select 18 xl 1 14 xl 1-11 10 xl 11 8
I did not throw in color or clarity which at the upper end can add or subtract a couple bucks per size or grade.
Last year with a better market we were getting about $24-$38 for our 3xxl-4xxl and 5xxl 1-11s, 1s and selects 2xxl-3xxls 1, 1-11s, 11s were 15-27 xls were from $1 to 18 depending on grade probably $11 average
Bryce
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Post by trappnman on Nov 30, 2007 22:11:36 GMT -6
so - all in all- what was your shipped average last year?
my overall average- every one nose count- was right around $16 green.
My coon are very comparable to yours.
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Post by bblwi on Nov 30, 2007 22:29:21 GMT -6
Mine was $19.51 gross which means I netted $17.70 giver or take a penny. I would state that your coon are better than mine Steve Why 1. You catch more larger early coon by setting the upland travel lanes 2. You catch many more later season coons in the water say in Mid-Nov to early Jan depending on weather. 3. Your coon are also a bit better color than mine with less brown and reddish colors. Even my friend that traps 20 miles west of me has better color than I do.
I am guessing your average size to be 3xxl with few 11 grade coons. I will have maybe 10=15% 11s and xls or low quality sows and that is enough to knock about 2-3 bucks off an average. My friend will average about $1 more than I and I even catch more later coons than he does. Color is a factor in the trim trade on the large size heavier goods.
Bryce
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Post by trappnman on Nov 30, 2007 22:40:35 GMT -6
but all in all- pretty comparable I'd say
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Post by bblwi on Nov 30, 2007 23:09:53 GMT -6
Yes I would agree probably quibbling over 2-3 dollars per coon and that is the coons from the preferred region. It is not like we were comparing to say coat types or centrals etc. I did see a bunch of NE IA coon 3 years ago when I dropped my fur off at NAFA and they were better coons than I had and I had all Nov and early December coons that year.
Bryce
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Post by ClaytonStockwell on Dec 1, 2007 7:31:27 GMT -6
Do you like Lee's method - nose count?
A trapper said Groeny paid an average of $2 less than Lee - with 5 grades of coon in the grease. He always sells to Groeny - large lots, ~ 600 over the season.
How does Lee compare with fur put-up fur?
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Post by trappnman on Dec 1, 2007 8:07:24 GMT -6
Lee much prefers green coon- everything lese, he much prefers put up.
I put up coon for a couple of years selling to Lee, and after he would tell me each year "I could do better green", I stated selling green.
keep in mind- its not "really" nose count (except rats)
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Post by DaveM on Dec 1, 2007 18:30:22 GMT -6
Here, no local buyers do nose count. The reason? People would cherry pick and hold the good ones to ship. I would never do that crap. But, does it happen a lot in your area?
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Post by ohiyotee on Dec 1, 2007 20:54:21 GMT -6
You could buy gray fox with proably 2 grades and not get hurt, good and bad............
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Post by trappnman on Dec 2, 2007 8:01:12 GMT -6
no it doesn't happen much in our area. A few guys that like ot showe te sheets with their top 10 coon on it- but not many.
Why? the local buyers aren't dummies- if the cream is gone- your average suffers big time.
and you need to read the post- its not a true "nose count" except on rats. The coon are still being graded- but rather than have, what did Bryce say...39 grades... they are graded into 3, maybe 4 classes.
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Post by ClaytonStockwell on Dec 2, 2007 8:30:28 GMT -6
I agree - "not really a nose count" - but a workable system of averaging. He's fast at sorting, looking at a lot and offering a price. He ships semi-loads of green coon over the season since Glen Waltz went out of business. I'm going back with yotes, fox and mink.
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Post by trappnman on Dec 2, 2007 8:39:35 GMT -6
Lee told me to look for 3 things on coon- the belly, the rump and the neck- last things to get good, first things to go.....
often, grabbing a green coon by the neck, to feel the "thickness", determines the overall grade....
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Post by thorsmightyhammer on Dec 2, 2007 16:28:03 GMT -6
I agree - "not really a nose count" - but a workable system of averaging. He's
I've had an epiphany. Clayton has put into words what i have been thinking for a long time.
If you have any quantity of fur at all I believe that most if not all country buyers know what they are going to pay you before you throw your stuff on the floor. Maybe not the exact amount but they have a certain range that they are going to fall into.
Why so few grades? Because most dont have a clue. The fur market is a living breathing beast that changes with the whims of a lady. What one part of the fur is being used one year will be worth squat the next.
Local buyers? Bah! You can have em. I'll take the roller coaster ride of the auction.
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Post by trappnman on Dec 2, 2007 19:04:40 GMT -6
steven- it sounds like you don't have a clue- seriously. We both know that year in year out- my prices are pretty much the same on AVERAGE as yours.
You think local dealers aren't talking fur daily- they know what is happening long before you do.
Why people think their way is always better, without really playing the other game, baffles me.
I'm not saying selling local is better for all- its better for ME.
I'm baffled as to WHY some can't understand average- average at auction or average local-
its STILL AVERAGE whether 150 grades or 2- and if you are knowledgeable about fur- and I think a man that has bought hundreds of thousands of coon over the past 40 years- might know a thing or two about grade- ya think?
guys running around with their auctions sheets showing their couple 40 dollar coon, are no more than someone walking out of Groenys proudly boasting the same.
AVERAGE- I could give a crap if I got 2- $100 coons and all the rest far less- if my average was lower than "nose count"
and even that- after mentioning over and over what "nose count" means- people still don't understand the concept.
Know what they are going to pay? and auction buyers don't? Yes- both know what they can pay-
local buyers, if honest- have their prices and grades- its up to the trapper to determine the averages with quality.
Most people that don't have a local buyer who is fair and honest wish they did.
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Post by bblwi on Dec 2, 2007 19:39:06 GMT -6
I am sure or quite sure that many local fur buyers are very excellent fur graders, they just have to make extremely fast decisions and keep the train rolling. Some of these traveling route fur buyers may stop at 8-10 places a day and see maybe 15-20 lots of fur per stop. Say with 15 coon per seller times 15 times 10 that would be 2,250 coons plus all the other fur, travel, setup etc. I don't know how many graders are at say NAFA or FHA to grade say coons, but if 600,000 coons are sold at 4 auctions that is lot of grading but in a totally different setting and time line.
I did some reviewing of my last 4 years catches and found the following. I caught as many larger, 3xxl-4xxl in late Oct as I did in mid November. I also caught more lg and xl coons and thus my average size was the same as my Mid Nov-early December. The xl and 2xxl coons caught mid Nov-early December were 1 or two grades higher than the late October coons. So what I am finding is my average for those later coons is about $3.00 higher than my late October, almost all due to the smaller coons having time to prime up better. That may be my methods and trap line management as I go to the water in November and trap water until the deer hunting season. I go back to trails and some farmstead cages during and after the season. If I were to find even better ways to avoid more smaller coons early my averages would be the same or even better.
It will be interesting to see how this year goes as there is a lot of pent up energy or hype in the coon market. Let's hope the market is strong enough to raise all sections of the coon market this year.
The first thing I will look for when my furs go is the range of values or prices. I can compare to see if it is a general increase over all or if specific sizes and or grades would be the beneficiaries of the rising market if it does rise.
This year I will have a decent number of coons that were early, all in the same sale and all caught within about 11 days, so I can really look at grade this year and see how much influence size has on grade as there will be almost no real time line difference in these coons.
Bryce
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